Although art people think of themselves as cool and edgy, and economics people as nerdy and decidedly uncool, there are some rules of economics that apply directly to art. The most obvious? Supply and demand.
When people say that the art market is "down" as it was in 2008 and 2009, what does that really mean? It ties in directly to the laws of S & D. When the financial markets are shaky and people don't feel like they have as much money, their art budgets are some of the first things to go. That has a significant effect on local and mid-range gallery markets. What guides the larger market as a whole is what's going on at the major auction houses worldwide.
In the midst of an economic downturn, collectors understand that they won't get as much for their Rothko as they might during boom times. Quite sensibly, they hold off on putting it on the block until the market shows signs of recovery. As a result, auction houses are given fewer and fewer top-tier pieces to sell, and they're forced to sell more mediocre works. Collectors aren't stupid, and once they sense that the offerings by Christie's, Sotheby's, and their buddies are less than fabulous, they stay home. That means the prices achieved for those mediocre pieces are . . . well, mediocre. And the cycle of the downturn in art continues.
The good news is that 2010 seems to be breaking from 2009 in a big way. We're seeing the best works up for sale that we've seen in several years, and prices at sales so far this year are very encouraging. Alberto Giacometti's
Walking Man achieved the highest price for any work ever sold at auction ($104.3 million) in London in February, and the Asian market has shown its robustness as the Hong Kong sales earlier this month. The first week of May will bring Sotheby's and Christie's Impressionist and Modern sales in New York, which will us a lot. Both of these have some impressive lots, so we'll be watching!